> [!info]- meta > **Author**: [[Dave Kellogg]] > **Full Title**: Win Rates, Close Rates and Milestone vs. Cohort Analysis > **Category**: #articles > **Tags**: #metrics #recipe > **Summary**: This post by Dave Kellogg explains the differences between milestone and flow analysis in calculating win rates for sales opportunities. Milestone analysis counts opportunities at different stages but can be misleading, while flow analysis tracks cohorts over time for a more accurate understanding. Using flow analysis allows businesses to better assess their sales funnel and marketing effectiveness. > > **Source**: [Original URL](https://kellblog.com/2017/11/09/how-to-align-marketing-budgets-with-sales-targets-using-win-rates-close-rates-and-milestone-vs-flow-analysis/) ## 📄 Full Document → [[Win Rates, Close Rates and Milestone vs. Cohort Analysis]] ## 🔦 Highlights & Commentary - **milestone analysis**. In effect, we put observers by the side of the road at various milestones (created, won, lost, derailed) and ask them to count the number opportunities that pass by each quarter. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01jsj6kcpj5zn52e4544pk3mr7)) - I think it’s far better to do a **cohort-based analysis**, which I call a **flow analysis**. Instead of looking at all the opportunities that hit a terminal state in a given time period, you go back in time, grab a cohort of opportunities (e.g., all those generated in 4Q16) and then see how they play out over time. You go with the flow. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01jsj6memtd8z21nj0rmrtf8nn)) - Note: You can combine these ideas and look at “create date” cohorts for all opps progressing to state to see what’s closing, what’s stalling. - The big downside of flow analysis is you end up analyzing ancient history. For example, if you have a 9 month average sales cycle with a wide distribution around the mean, you may need to wait 15-18 months before the vast majority of the opportunities hit a terminal state. If you analyze too early, too many opportunities are still open. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01jsj6qjfe1cn6heaaynwjfxmb)) - You can compress the time window by analyzing programs effectiveness not to sales outcomes but to important steps along the funnel. ([View Highlight](https://read.readwise.io/read/01jsj6qvdnm6y6gfsm0zhw2qww))